Timber Cycles *
نویسندگان
چکیده
We construct an intertemporal model of rent-maximizing behaviour on the part of a timber harvester under potentially multi-dimensional risk as well as geographical heterogeneity. Subsequently, we use recursive methods (in particular, the method of dynamic programming) to characterize the optimal policy function, the rent-maximizing timber-harvesting profile. One noteworthy feature of our application is the unique and detailed information we have organized in the form of a dynamic geographical information system to account for site-specific cost heterogeneity in harvesting and transportation as well as uneven-aged stand dynamics in timber growth and yield across space and time in the presence of stochastic lumber prices. Our model is a powerful tool with which to investigate issues of aggregation and to understand the evident cycles that are predicted in harvesting under our assumptions. JEL Classification Numbers: C61, C81, D92, H32, L73, Q23.
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